It looks like it is time to bounce again. This is the adjusted rising wedge for SPY. This current bounce appears to be taking place where the adjusted support looks to be. I am tired of this game.. but it appears the S&P is ready to cycle through another rally mode. Global economic data looks terrible to me, but the stock market(s) disconnected from economic data a few year ago in my opinion. So rallying despite bad data is nothing new. I have entered some long positions, but am mostly a bemused bystander by now as I believe we are well into bubble territory.
Most of the bearish chart configurations that appeared in the spring have flittered away harmlessly. The breakdowns that were teased never came to fruition. There is one major index that remains in the long term pattern that (still) portends trouble: the S&P. SPY has formed a clear rising wedge from the 2009 bottom. SPY is currently testing the upper bound of that pattern.
The SPDR Financials ETF (XLF) remains an interesting short candidate to me. I was duped into declaring early victory a month ago and XLF has since rallied. But it continues to contend with 50% retracement Fibonacci resistance from its 2007-2009 decline. It is also at the very end of a multi-year rising wedge pattern.
Another interesting short candidate to me is LLL. It has been in a steep rising channel for over a year. A rising channel is typically a bullish pattern, so I am not overly bearish… but flat revenue and profit growth for years, and a double in price over the last 12 months. It seemed tempting. The doji top a couple weeks ago looks like (at least a temporary) top.
Not that this is news to anyone who wears a tin foil hat, but it’s officially in the mainstream now: gold prices have been “fixed” for a while now…
Big Brother IS watching. Fed stock-pumping. Libor scam. We’re running out of conspiracy theories in the “crazy” basket…
This is what it looks like when profits trump people:
I imagine that this is the recipe by which capitalism might ultimately kill itself.
Chart from Zero Hedge.
Nothing new to this story, but the most recent jobs number shows the ongoing dominance of part-time jobs. From Zero Hedge.
Yves Smith and naked capitalism with the dirty on how traders game bonuses, and the system.
Perhaps that’s because the current administration (like its predecessor) continues to reward big business (i.e. its contributors) over small business (i.e. the folks who tend to create jobs).
At the Washington Post, Daniel Ellsburg of the Pentagon Papers fame, throws his support behind Edward Snowden and his choice to flee the U.S.
Doug Short looks at ECRI’s most recent growth indexes. About that recession call… may have been just a smidge early.
With interest rates having broken resistance to the upside, Chris Kimble looks at how high rates on the 30 year may go before resistance.
John Aziz at Azizonomics with a few charts to remind us that, equity ponzi aside, Americans in the real world continue to struggle.
I am still much more interested in and concerned with the ongoing Edward Snowden/politico story than current financial markets, so here are a few links:
A New York Times op-ed piece by Roger Cohen on Edward Snowden sums up my view of him: he has done the citizens of the United States a great service.
Still on the Snowden story, Glenn Greenwald commented on the smear campaign that has been started against him.
Moving back toward the recent action in financial markets:
From Zero Hedge, Pivot Farm has done a four part series on the history of market crashes. Here is part four.
According to an Economic Policy Institute study, CEO pay continued to be ridiculously high relative to workers in 2012.
Lee Adler at Wall Street Examiner points out that, under QE, employment growth has just kept pace with population growth. The only thing QE has boosted is equity valuations.
From WSJ, Stanley Druckenmiller says our current manipulated market leaves no place for actual analysis.
David Sirota at Salon gets to the essence of why PRISM is so dangerous to U.S. citizens: it either violates Article IV of the Bill of Rights, or by claiming “probably cause” it presumes every citizen is a suspect.
Sober Look points to further evidence that China’s slow down is much more than rumor.
Azizonomics wonders whether financial markets have gone “post-human.”
On PragCap, Surley Trader suggests the world markets are closely watching (and copying) the Nikkei. “Yen = Nikkei = expected inflation”, as he puts it. I couldn’t agree more.
Of much greater interest to me is the Edward Snowden story. Though it doesn’t tie directly to financial markets, I do see an associative correlation in the idea of central planning. We see it in the markets and we see it on the societal level – the desire for authority to control that which they can’t. It’s an urge as old as mankind.
As part of the same over-arching story, Matt Taibbi aptly addresses the Bradley Manning trial, pointing out that “If you can be punished for making public a crime, then the government doing the punishing is itself criminal.”
Charles Hugh Smith’s thoughts on the Surveillance State, as it is.
Here’s the Guardian’s account of how the story of Edward Snowden’s Big Reveal unfolded, along with a video interview. One of the most influential books on my thinking is the Gulag Archipelago, which I read in my early 20’s. Snowden’s comments at 7.30-ish are exactly in line with how Stalin oppressed Soviets, and it is the scenario that I believe is so worrisome.