I am sorry that I have posted so sparingly of late. I am quite ambivalent regarding the market. I still think we are in a topping process. I still think if looking at the long-term picture, market sentiment shows in the chart as a rising wedge: i.e. consolidation of bulls in an unbalanced position. Some technical analysts that I really respect have mentioned the prospect of an upside breakout, which would be a big deal. It would make the notion of a “topping process” only plausible in the most ridiculous hindsight down the road. That said, I still see this as a time to put money someplace safe. Whatever that means, these days. Here is the S&P rising wedge.
The same pattern is still present in both the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones.
Treasuries are very interesting to me as well. Going back almost a decade, there is a rising channel in place. A month or two ago, the 30 year ETF (TLT) hit the upper line of resistance and has since pulled back sharply. A sharp decline in TLT price would seem appropriate for a breakout in equity prices.
I continue to be amazed by what I see as market blindness. Short-sighted pursuit of market profit, regardless of risk. It seems to me that the various Central Banks have driven any authentic “price discovery” from the markets. I do not know what will act as a catalyst to break that confidence, but I do believe that when it breaks, the fall will be further than faster than anticipated. But I am not willing to bet on such a fall right now. Nothing is broken just yet, and the bulls have command.