Market Chart Updates

I haven’t posted in a while as despite all of the volatility, nothing has changed in a sense.  The U.S. indexes have been unable to push decisively higher and appear to be continuing the topping behavior witnessed over the last year.  The S&P is marginally below support of the multi-year rising wedge I’ve been following, but there has not been a decisive breakdown.

2015-01-21-SPY2_CHARTS

Small caps (IWM) have been interesting as they appears to be capped on the underside of a rising wedge.

2015-01-21-IWM_CHARTS

But the most interesting action appears to be in commodities and foreign markets.  First, commodities.  In general, they have been eviscerated.  The commodities basket ETF, DBC, makes the point with a picture:

2015-01-21-DBC_CHARTS

Copper, which I first shorted back in 2013, has finally broken down good and proper.

2015-01-21-JJC_CHARTS

Of course, the plunge in oil makes copper’s slide look like a tiny divot.  I don’t have a strong feeling about oil.  Natural gas, however, has the makings of a long term inverted hand-and-shoulders pattern.  Very interesting.

2015-01-21-NG_CHARTS

There are also interesting patterns to be found in many of the foreign markets that have been battered in recent months.

First, have a looked at the emerging markets basket ETF, EEM:

2015-01-21-EEM_CHARTS

Brazil (EWZ) also appears to be at support.

2015-01-21-EWZ_CHARTS

And China (FXI) looks to have broken out, pulled back to support and then surged to a new high.  A pretty decent looking pattern if you are looking for a proven breakout.

2015-01-21-FXI_CHARTS

  1. Draft
    January 23, 2015 at 2:00 am

    Today’s surge in the S&P might have brought it to the underside of the wedge. It’ll be interesting to see if it can make it to the upper line of the wedge before turning around.

  2. Draft
    February 1, 2015 at 3:17 pm

    Looks like a triangle is forming. But high yield isn’t confirming a breakdown, I don’t think, so it’s really hard to understand what’s going on…

    • February 3, 2015 at 10:50 am

      I am just letting it play out. I remain of the view that we are witnessing the formation of a major top. I will not be surprised if it does not wind up with a textbook topping pattern because there is so much manipulation at work. Whatever this market is, it is not “free” in any meaningful sense. But I do think the hubris of the manipulation has limits, and I suspect those limits are being reached. But we shall see.

  3. February 17, 2015 at 4:00 pm

    I bailed on some of my shorts late last week. Enough to get my exposure pretty flat. The February rally burned my shorts pretty good. I still see all of this as topping, but suspect we may rally all the way to new highs at trendline resistance.

  4. Draft
    February 20, 2015 at 9:36 pm

    Yeah, I dropped out of shorts a couple of weeks back and have been in some very small longs, but have not gone more than 30% long.

    Where is trendline resistance for the S&P at this point? I’ve sort of lost track since it seemed like the wedge ended.

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