Calling a Top?

I’m on my invisible soapbox.  And I’m short.  Everything (not really, but maybe rhetorically).  I meant to post this little note on Friday, and then over the weekend, and now I’ve missed the top on my little blog.  Fortunately, my positions are in place.  I will bail if this moment proves wrong (the S&P pattern can continue the uptrend into 2015), but it seems like so many parts are in place.

The Alibaba IPO, the largest in history, seems almost comically ordered for the explicit purpose of a providing a market top.  We have small caps diverging from larger caps for months, a sign of weakening risk appetite.  Europe is ready to fall apart again and world leaders are playing Warmonger again.  We had our seasonal turn date on 9/22.  Major indexes are pushing technical resistance.  Anyway, it adds up to enough that I’m happy to take my short shot here.

Now to the charts (these are all from last Friday or something, when I intended to post).

First the S&P.  Yep, still hugging resistance.

2014-09-19-ES_CHARTS

Short term maybe you can see that bearish candle from Friday.  It has played out as bearish indeed in the two days since.

2014-09-19-ES-ST_CHARTS

Small caps (IWM) continue to show relative weakness.  Since capturing this chart, IWM has pushed towards support.

2014-09-19-IWM-ST_CHARTS

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  1. Draft
    September 25, 2014 at 11:33 pm

    I agree. I went short at the same time as you. But the question is where is support? Is this a big correction, or are we squeezed between narrow lines?

  2. September 29, 2014 at 10:51 am

    Draft, the short version is that IWM (small caps) bounced at support on Friday. S&P seems to be at the support trend line that has held since early 2013, however it is a fair bit above the longer term support trend line. I will try to post some new charts soon. Breakdowns in commodities and emerging markets is something well worth watching, imho. Also, treasuries have bounced strongly since pulling back to the rising support trend line. I still think all of this adding up to evidence of a tradeable top.

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