Predictably Irrational Bounce
A world hankering for war? No problem. Despite rising geopolitical tension, it looks like the U.S. markets may be done with negativity for now. Though the longer term patterns remain bearish, and I still believe the end is in sight, it looks to me like there is another push higher (maybe to S&P 2000?) in the cards. Let’s look at some charts.
First, the S&P (SPY), which never got down to its support line, but did post a nice reversal pattern last week.
Here’s a closer look at last week’s SPY reversal:
The most interesting chart to me is the inverse-VIX ETF that I had been short, (XIV). I closed my short on Friday and opened a long position today. We’ll see how that goes…
Small caps (IWM) seem to have found support and may be moving into a sideways channel. I still expect to see it break down to new lows, but I am open to being wrong.
Nasdaq is one of the most interesting charts because it barely budged off its highs! Wow. I wonder if it’ll push to that upper line?
With bulls still running amok and geopolitical risks rampant, it seems like a good time to stay nimble regardless of bull/bear bent.