SPY testing long term support

I have not commented much in recent months, but I thought I might provide an updated look at how I see the S&P chart.  It has been forming a rising wedge over the last 5 years and appears to be near the end of the line.  This most recent breakdown is threatening the line of support.  Support has been broken before – both dramatically for short periods, and slightly for longer periods – so it will take a few weeks to get a better sense for what this break means.  Margin remains near all-time highs.  Sentiment has come off bullish extremes though, as has been the case since 2008.  Anyway, enough blather.  Here is how I see the 5 year chart of SPY.

2014-02-03-SPY_CHARTS

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