Is ITB a good short candidate?

Much has been made recently of the housing recovery that appears to be taking hold in the U.S.  While the news is newly prominent in the mainstream media, the market has been pricing in a housing recovery since the start of the year.  It may be that the good news is already baked into the securities.  Chart ace Chris Kimble has noted IYR (Real Estate ETF) as an interesting short candidate.  IYR has indeed underperformed of late – much moreso than ITB.  ITB is currently testing resistance that could serve as the right shoulder of a 3 month Head-and-Shoulders pattern.  It had previously broken down from a 6 month rising wedge, but found support at a year-old rising trend line (channel or wedge?).  It may be worth noting that MoneyFlow has been declining for the last 6 months (red line sub-graph) as the stock continued to rise.

With so much bullishness on housing, this seems like a fairly contrarian play.  My exposure is limited to some $21 Dec Put contracts at this point.

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