VIX suggesting a sell-off, equities suggesting breakout
Through December and January, the VIX has fallen sharply as markets surged fearlessly higher. That appears to be changing. In the last week, VIX has finally perked. Even though the S&P itself hasn’t shown any significant price weakness, the VIX broken aggressively higher. Looking at an intra-day chart of Wednesday, even as the S&P was safely in the green in the morning, VIX was elevated. The same on Thursday morning. Here was the intra-day chart of Wednesday, comparing VXX (red) to SPX (black)
Going back over the last 6 months, the VIX formed a falling (bullish) wedge, and appears to have now broken to the upside of that wedge.
The S&P appeared to have broken significant trendline resistance in early January, but it now struggling to maintain its steep ascent. It may be hitting new resistance that proves significant. Or it may just be readying for a smaller pullback that proves to be a buying opportunity.