2008 redux?

I recently posted this article on Seeking Alpha, noting the similar circumstances between the most recent rally and a rally in May of 2008.  One additional observation that didn’t make it into the article, but certainly qualifies as another eerie similarity, is the time elapsed between market top and the post-breakdown return to the 200 day SMA.  In the previous crisis, the market topped in October of 2007.  Following its breakdown, the fierce rally that brought the S&P back to its 200 day moving average took place in May of 2008 – 7 months after the top.  This year, the market topped in April.  It is now November – again, 7 months later.  Fluky and possibly irrelevant?  Yes.  An example of how crisis’ unfold in similar patterns?  Perhaps.  A reason to put your life savings into December 2012 $40 SPY puts?  Not exactly.  But interesting nonetheless.  At least to me.

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