Sotheby’s Bubble Indicator Update
In the past, I’ve periodically updated the Sotheby’s (BID) chart. The idea, one I originally saw on Zero Hedge, is that Sotheby’s has been a pretty good “bubble” barometer over the last couple decades. As cheap money tries to find places to play, Sotheby’s has boom and/or contracted in exaggerated synchronicity with the “wealth effect” of a given period. In the chart below, the blue line is the S&P and the black is BID.
What I thought worth noting is that in the current ramp, while the S&P pushed to new intermediate highs, BID did not. In fact, much like parts of the commodity complex, BID has remained in a clear downtrend.
Extrapolate from that what you will, but one thing does appear clear: BID buyers are feeling less hopeful than SPY buyers. And it’s worth noting that in both 2000 and 2008, BID peaked and/or pushed to aggressive new lows well before the broader market.