Near bottom of range… buy time?
The markets have been exceptionally choppy, and have traded down hard in the last week. This has caught me off-guard a bit. But, though I am very much a long-term bear, I see this is more of a “buy the dip with a tight stop” situation, than a “get out of dodge” moment. The S&P has traded down to its 200 day moving average (though both the Nasdaq and Dow are better off):
Another bullish (imho) sign is that technology, which as led throughout this last 3 year rally, has significantly outperformed the S&P over the last month. This indicates to methat there remains a bullish undercurrent that still believes in the global growth story. The chart below is QQQ divided by SPY, showing how the QQQ (Nasdaq) index has outperformed the S&P recently.
Also, things like copper, high yield bonds, and consumer discretionary have held up relatively well. All of these things combined temper my pessimism for the moment and make me suspect that the “end” is not at hand… yet.