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Archive for March 21, 2011

Rally setting up a short opportunity?

The U.S. indexes rallied about 1.5% today.  But given the gusto with which they had quickly moved into “oversold” territory, a rebound is hardly surprising.  What is perhaps more noteworthy than the price action is the volume.  As the S&P has come off its bottom, volume has dried up.  There is some price resistance for S&P  at 1300.  Should the rally power through that, I see the top of a declining channel around 1320.  Above that, I’d likely be interested in adding long exposure.  For now, I think the entire “bull” case revolves around inflation.  And I prefer silver to equities as my “long inflation” play.  Here’s the tepid S&P rally, per its proxy SPY, as I see it: